17
Opal Storm
6yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 55
Ayr · Brandinghub For Signs & Graphics Handicap · 5f
#17
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#17
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Carlisle | 6 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-08-24 | Musselburgh | 6 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-08-13 | Beverley | 5 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Beverley | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Beverley | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-14 | Beverley | 6 | 8th | 9th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish17th of 2016% of fieldRange 5-20 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▼
Strength9%
Delivery trend -2.4% per run
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 17th of 20. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/04/2026 | 1st | 33/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 24/04/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 69% | +0.03 |
| 03/05/2026 | 12th | 17/2 | 55% | 0% | -0.55 |
| 14/07/2026 | 8th | 22/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 20/07/2026 | 1st | 25/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 28/07/2026 | 8th | 17/2 | 55% | 13% | -0.43 |
| 13/08/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 24/08/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 09/09/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 55% | +0.39 |