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Oriental Prince

5yo Gelding · 10-2 · OR 69

Ayr · Brandinghub For Signs & Graphics Handicap · 5f

#6

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

6%

Place Prob

9%

Rank

#6

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Hit-and-miss sprinter. Well positioned when landing a second turf win in a big-field York handicap last time, the form since franked by a couple of the in-frame horses. Capable of following up back down in grade under a penalty.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength87%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 5.8)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 5
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Newcastle 16/01/2026 · Pos 10th of 14 · OR 79 · 6f Std 114 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/01/2026 · OR 79 par16/012OR 794 @ Hamilton 27/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 78 · 5f7y Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark27/05/2026 · OR 78 par4 @ York 12/06/2026 · Pos 20th of 20 · OR 76 · 7f Gd 131 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark12/06/2026 · OR 76 par12/064OR 764 @ Ayr 20/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 74 · 6f Sft 136 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 74 par3 @ Doncaster 03/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 72 · 5f3y GF 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/07/2026 · OR 72 par3/073OR 723 @ Ayr 20/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 71 · 6f GF 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/07/2026 · OR 71 par5 @ Hamilton 01/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 69 · 5f7y Gd 129 · beat its mark01/08/2026 · OR 69 par1/085OR 693 @ Hamilton 21/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 69 · 5f7y GS 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/08/2026 · OR 69 par4 @ York 06/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 21 · OR 69 · 5f89y GS 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/09/2026 · OR 69 par6/094OR 69projClass-projected finish: 1st of 20
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-06York41st0th+1
2026-08-21Hamilton36th4th+2
2026-08-01Hamilton52nd2nd0
2026-07-20Ayr38th6th+2
2026-07-03Doncaster34th2nd+2
2026-06-20Ayr47th6th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/0120/061/086/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 2084% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +6.1% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 20. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/01/202610th33/10%31%+0.31
27/05/20265th9/276%20%-0.56
12/06/202620th33/10%0%0.00
20/06/20267th28/10%54%+0.54
03/07/20264th5/174%50%-0.24
20/07/20268th16/116%13%-0.03
01/08/20262nd5/174%90%+0.16
21/08/20266th18/15%50%+0.45
06/09/20261st10/147%100%+0.53