20
Pockley
8yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 51
Ayr · Brandinghub For Signs & Graphics Handicap · 5f
#19
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#19
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength26%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.5 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-09 | Newcastle | 6 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-11-27 | Newcastle | 6 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2025-11-20 | Newcastle | 6 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2025-10-21 | Newcastle | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-09-18 | Ayr | 5 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2025-09-13 | Musselburgh | 6 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish20th of 200% of fieldRange 15-20 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -5.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 20th of 20. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/06/2025 | 7th | 22/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 27/06/2025 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 67% | +0.04 |
| 09/08/2025 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 13/09/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 18/09/2025 | 13th | 66/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 21/10/2025 | 1st | 18/5 | 81% | 100% | +0.19 |
| 20/11/2025 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 38% | -0.47 |
| 27/11/2025 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 40% | -0.28 |
| 09/12/2025 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 60% | -0.08 |