11
Simba's Pride
3yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 66
Ayr · Brandinghub For Signs & Graphics Handicap · 5f
#14
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#14
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength35%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Beverley | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-12 | Beverley | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-16 | Thirsk | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Thirsk | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Thirsk | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | York | 4 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish16th of 2021% of fieldRange 15-20 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -3.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 16th of 20. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 17/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 88% | +0.01 |
| 28/05/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 12/06/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 67% | -0.19 |
| 16/06/2026 | 4th | 5/6 | 96% | 50% | -0.46 |
| 01/07/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 16/07/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 63% | -0.24 |
| 12/08/2026 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 33% | -0.30 |
| 30/08/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 73% | +0.25 |