The Caltonian
7yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 67
Ayr · Brandinghub For Signs & Graphics Handicap · 5f
#2
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
23%
Place Prob
17%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 5.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Redcar | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Newmarket | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-07-20 | Ayr | 3 | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-07-06 | Ayr | 4 | 12th | 11th | +1 |
| 2026-06-27 | Newcastle | 2 | 5th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-04-13 | Newcastle | 3 | 10th | 8th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +1.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 20.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/12/2025 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 38% | -0.26 |
| 16/01/2026 | 1st | 33/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 06/02/2026 | 13th | 11/2 | 71% | 8% | -0.63 |
| 13/04/2026 | 10th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 27/06/2026 | 5th | 100/1 | 0% | 69% | +0.69 |
| 06/07/2026 | 12th | 28/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 20/07/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 07/08/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |
| 22/08/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |