Thistle Nil
4yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 68
Ayr · Brandinghub For Signs & Graphics Handicap · 5f
#3
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
15%
Place Prob
14%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 6.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Hamilton | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-13 | Ayr | 5 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Carlisle | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Ayr | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Carlisle | 4 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-05-05 | Ayr | 4 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +9.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 20. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/05/2026 | 7th | 66/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 09/06/2026 | 9th | 300/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 19/06/2026 | 1st | 200/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 04/07/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 13/07/2026 | 11th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 21/08/2026 | 1st | 40/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |