6
Thunderstorm Katie
5yo Mare · 9-10 · OR 68
Ayr · Brandinghub For Signs & Graphics Handicap · 5f
#1
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
37%
Place Prob
22%
Rank
#1
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Hamilton | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Ayr | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-01 | Hamilton | 5 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Musselburgh | 6 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-11 | Hamilton | 6 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-06-04 | Hamilton | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 2079% of fieldRange 5-20 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength39%
Delivery trend -2.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 20. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 45% | +0.09 |
| 15/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 89% | +0.15 |
| 20/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/10 | 94% | 80% | -0.14 |
| 04/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 88% | +0.16 |
| 11/07/2026 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 29% | -0.54 |
| 31/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 80% | +0.09 |
| 01/08/2026 | 9th | 5/1 | 74% | 20% | -0.54 |
| 08/08/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 02/09/2026 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 38% | -0.28 |