2
Vince L'Amour
5yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 70
Ayr · Brandinghub For Signs & Graphics Handicap · 5f
#8
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#8
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength61%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 8.3 /10 (raw 7.0)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +1.2
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Catterick | 4 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-08-15 | Ripon | 4 | 15th | 14th | +1 |
| 2026-08-07 | Thirsk | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | York | 4 | 17th | 16th | +1 |
| 2026-07-06 | Ripon | 4 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-06-18 | Ripon | 2 | 7th | 3rd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 2047% of fieldRange 11-20 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength19%
Delivery trend +1.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 20.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/2026 | 13th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 31/05/2026 | 13th | 50/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 09/06/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 18/06/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 06/07/2026 | 9th | 22/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 25/07/2026 | 17th | 66/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 07/08/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 80% | +0.33 |
| 15/08/2026 | 15th | 66/1 | 0% | 26% | +0.26 |
| 26/08/2026 | 8th | 22/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |