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16

Whiskey Kisses

3yo Filly · 9-3 · OR 62

Ayr · Brandinghub For Signs & Graphics Handicap · 5f

#12

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#12

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Maiden who's placed 3 times in 6f handicaps here this summer. Wasn't disgraced in a better race than she need contest when beaten 3¼ lengths at Hamilton last time. Back down in trip/class here and booking of Jason Hart catches the eye.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength33%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.4 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.2
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 2

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Haydock 17/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 75 · 6f Goo 128 · beat its mark17/10/2025 · OR 75 par17/105OR 754 @ Southwell 13/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 74 · 4f214y Std 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/03/2026 · OR 74 par5 @ Lingfield 25/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 72 · 6f1y Std 129 · below its mark25/03/2026 · OR 72 par25/035OR 724 @ Ayr 20/06/2026 · Pos 14th of 14 · OR 69 · 6f Sft 124 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark20/06/2026 · OR 69 par5 @ Ayr 06/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 65 · 7f50y Gd 125 · beat its mark06/07/2026 · OR 65 par6/075OR 656 @ Ayr 13/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 65 · 6f Goo 136 · beat its mark13/07/2026 · OR 65 par6 @ Ayr 20/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 62 · 6f GF 134 · beat its mark20/07/2026 · OR 62 par20/076OR 626 @ Ayr 08/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 62 · 6f Goo 133 · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 62 par4 @ Hamilton 21/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 63 · 6f6y GS 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/08/2026 · OR 63 par21/084OR 63projClass-projected finish: 7th of 20
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-21Hamilton46th5th+1
2026-08-08Ayr62nd3rd−1
2026-07-20Ayr63rd4th−1
2026-07-13Ayr63rd4th−1
2026-07-06Ayr59th9th0
2026-06-20Ayr414th13th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/1020/0620/0721/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 2068% of fieldRange 1-17 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength69%

Delivery trend +11.4% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 20. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/10/20253rd9/276%80%+0.04
13/03/20264th11/486%50%-0.36
25/03/20266th11/271%17%-0.54
20/06/202614th50/10%0%0.00
06/07/20269th125/10%20%+0.20
13/07/20263rd50/10%71%+0.71
20/07/20263rd11/893%60%-0.33
08/08/20262nd28/10%92%+0.92
21/08/20266th40/10%50%+0.50