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Darzah

3yo Filly · 9-9 · OR 81

Ayr · British Stallion Studs Scottish Premier Series EBF Fillies' Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f

#2

Rank

Odds

7/4

Win Prob

7%

Place Prob

16%

Rank

#2

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Well-bred daughter of Dubawi who doubled her tally at Newmarket in June. Advanced her form when 2¾ lengths behind a more progressive one at Pontefract latest. Makes plenty of appeal now stepped up in trip, for a yard operating at a 38% strike rate with 3-y-o runners here in the past 5 seasons.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength57%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 3.7)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Newmarket 15/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR - · 1m Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS15/0424 @ Bath 13/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR - · 1m Fm 12813/0544 @ Sandown 28/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 78 · 1m Goo 133 · beat its mark28/05/2026 · OR 78 par28/054OR 784 @ Newmarket 25/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 78 · 1m Goo 130 · beat its mark25/06/2026 · OR 78 par25/064OR 784 @ Nottingham 21/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 81 · 1m75y Goo 135 · below its mark21/07/2026 · OR 81 par21/074OR 813 @ Pontefract 16/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 81 · 1m6y Goo 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/08/2026 · OR 81 par16/083OR 81projClass-projected finish: 1st of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-16Pontefract32nd1st+1
2026-07-21Nottingham45th5th0
2026-06-25Newmarket41st1st0
2026-05-28Sandown48th8th0
2026-05-13Bath41st1st0
2026-04-15Newmarket25th3rd+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/0413/0528/0525/0621/0716/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 2-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength40%

Delivery trend -10.1% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/04/20265th14/126%43%+0.17
13/05/20261st8/1597%100%+0.03
28/05/20268th11/271%36%-0.35
25/06/20261st3/184%100%+0.16
21/07/20265th3/184%0%-0.84
16/08/20262nd5/287%75%-0.12