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5

Geo

4yo Filly · 9-1 · OR 68

Ayr · British Stallion Studs Scottish Premier Series EBF Fillies' Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f

#5

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Consistent filly who landed a 1m handicap off 3 lb lower mark here in May. Since hit the frame in back-to-back C&D handicaps (latter of those solid form) prior to facing a stiff task up in class at Haydock latest. Solid claims returning to this grade/course.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength48%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Ayr 20/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 65 · 1m GF 120 · beat its mark20/05/2026 · OR 65 par20/054OR 654 @ Thirsk 31/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 67 · 7f218y Goo 124 · beat its mark31/05/2026 · OR 67 par5 @ Hamilton 17/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 67 · 1m68y Goo 134 · beat its mark17/06/2026 · OR 67 par17/065OR 674 @ Carlisle 24/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 67 · 7f173y GF 132 · beat its mark24/06/2026 · OR 67 par5 @ Hamilton 25/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR 67 · 1m3f15y Goo 140 · beat its mark25/06/2026 · OR 67 par25/065OR 675 @ Hamilton 17/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 69 · 1m68y Goo 140 · beat its mark17/07/2026 · OR 69 par4 @ Ayr 27/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 70 · 1m2f Goo 127 · beat its mark27/07/2026 · OR 70 par27/074OR 705 @ Ayr 08/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR 70 · 1m2f Goo 137 · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 70 par3 @ Haydock 03/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 69 · 1m2f42y Sft 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/09/2026 · OR 69 par3/093OR 69projClass-projected finish: 6th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-03Haydock36th5th+1
2026-08-08Ayr54th5th−1
2026-07-27Ayr43rd3rd0
2026-07-17Hamilton52nd3rd−1
2026-06-25Hamilton52nd3rd−1
2026-06-24Carlisle44th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/0524/0627/073/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 3-7 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▼
Strength33%

Delivery trend -2.2% per run

What the projection says

Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/05/20261st12/137%100%+0.63
31/05/20266th10/147%50%+0.03
17/06/20262nd9/276%80%+0.04
24/06/20264th9/276%67%-0.10
25/06/20262nd3/184%67%-0.18
17/07/20262nd11/893%75%-0.18
27/07/20263rd8/158%50%-0.08
08/08/20264th12/137%75%+0.38
03/09/20266th18/15%17%+0.11