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6

Mudita

3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 67

Ayr · British Stallion Studs Scottish Premier Series EBF Fillies' Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f

#1

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

84%

Place Prob

54%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Ripon maiden winner who caught the eye when well-backed fourth in Class 5 handicap at Redcar (1¼m, good) last month. Best not judged on subsequent effort in higher grade at Beverley (heavy). Respected in first-time hood, though this is still a stronger race than ideal.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength33%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Wolverhampton 03/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR - · 7f36y Std 1243/0344 @ Ripon 25/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR - · 1m1f170y Goo 1214 @ Nottingham 03/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 72 · 1m2f50y Goo 127 · beat its mark03/06/2026 · OR 72 par3/064OR 724 @ Doncaster 20/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 72 · 1m3f197y GF 127 · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 72 par4 @ Chester 11/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 70 · 1m6f87y Goo 119 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 70 par11/074OR 704 @ Ascot 25/07/2026 · Pos 11th of 15 · OR 69 · 1m3f211y GF 120 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 69 par5 @ Redcar 22/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 67 · 1m2f1y Goo 133 · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 67 par22/085OR 673 @ Beverley 30/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 67 · 1m1f207y Hvy 116 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/08/2026 · OR 67 par30/083OR 67projClass-projected finish: 5th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-30Beverley36th5th+1
2026-08-22Redcar54th5th−1
2026-07-25Ascot411th11th0
2026-07-11Chester43rd3rd0
2026-06-20Doncaster43rd3rd0
2026-06-03Nottingham45th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/0320/0622/0830/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 3-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength18%

Delivery trend -5.6% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/03/20263rd50/10%71%+0.71
25/04/20261st11/271%100%+0.29
03/06/20265th17/255%20%-0.35
20/06/20263rd18/15%50%+0.45
11/07/20263rd15/261%60%-0.01
25/07/202611th22/10%29%+0.29
22/08/20264th10/382%63%-0.20
30/08/20266th14/126%44%+0.18