7
Sweet Kiss
4yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 61
Ayr · British Stallion Studs Scottish Premier Series EBF Fillies' Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f
#6
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#6
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Redcar | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-08-22 | Redcar | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-08-10 | Ayr | 6 | 6th | 8th | −2 |
| 2026-07-25 | Newcastle | 6 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-07-06 | Ayr | 6 | 6th | 8th | −2 |
| 2026-06-05 | Doncaster | 6 | 5th | 7th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▲
Strength79%
Delivery trend +3.6% per run
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/11/2025 | 7th | 7/2 | 82% | 33% | -0.48 |
| 17/05/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 29/05/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 05/06/2026 | 5th | 9/4 | 88% | 20% | -0.68 |
| 06/07/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 55% | -0.09 |
| 25/07/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 92% | +0.44 |
| 10/08/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 22/08/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 86% | +0.07 |
| 09/09/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 88% | -0.05 |