3
Valley Of Flowers
8yo Mare · 9-7 · OR 74
Ayr · British Stallion Studs Scottish Premier Series EBF Fillies' Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f
#3
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
13%
Rank
#3
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Beverley | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-24 | York | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | York | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Carlisle | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-22 | Catterick | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-05-31 | Thirsk | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength93%
Delivery trend +3.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09/2025 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 83% | +0.23 |
| 23/04/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 17% | -0.41 |
| 03/05/2026 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 14% | -0.59 |
| 31/05/2026 | 2nd | 28/1 | 0% | 91% | +0.91 |
| 22/06/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 0% | -0.84 |
| 04/07/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 11/07/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 63% | -0.01 |
| 24/07/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 58% | +0.06 |
| 29/08/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |