7
Altareq
4yo Gelding · 9-2 · OR 85
Ayr · Ladbrokes 'Bet 5 Get 30 New Customer Offer' Kilkerran Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f
#3
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#3
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 11.2 /10 (raw 7.1)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.8
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Hamilton | 2 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Hamilton | 3 | 11th | 12th | −1 |
| 2026-07-11 | York | 2 | 19th | 19th | 0 |
| 2026-07-05 | Ayr | 4 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-06-24 | Carlisle | 4 | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-06-12 | York | 2 | 15th | 15th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1170% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength43%
Delivery trend -3.4% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 4th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 89% | +0.18 |
| 15/05/2026 | 3rd | 22/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |
| 04/06/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |
| 12/06/2026 | 15th | 16/5 | 83% | 7% | -0.76 |
| 24/06/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 85% | +0.19 |
| 05/07/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 11/07/2026 | 19th | 25/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 11/08/2026 | 11th | 10/1 | 47% | 17% | -0.31 |
| 21/08/2026 | 12th | 28/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |