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Dain Ma Nut In

5yo Gelding · 10-0 · OR 97

Ayr · Ladbrokes 'Bet 5 Get 30 New Customer Offer' Kilkerran Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f

#7

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#7

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Course winner who was well held in this event 12 months ago. Back to his useful best when ½-length second at Thirsk (form hardly robust) last month and can have a line put through latest run. Should at least be able to adopt his usual front-running tactics with Jason Hart back aboard.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength37%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 9.1 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.7
Today: 2
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ York 11/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 83 · 1m2f56y Goo 140 · beat its mark11/07/2025 · OR 83 par11/074OR 832 @ York 23/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 15 · OR 88 · 1m2f56y Goo 126 · beat its mark23/08/2025 · OR 88 par2 @ Ayr 18/09/2025 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR 91 · 1m2f Goo 137 · beat its mark18/09/2025 · OR 91 par18/092OR 91C0 @ Bahrain 19/12/2025 · Pos 12th of 13 · OR - · 1m1f208y Gd 127C0 @ Bahrain 29/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 15 · OR - · 1m1f208y GF 12929/01C?C1 @ Bahrain 19/02/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 99 · 1m2f206y Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/02/2026 · OR 99 par2 @ York 11/07/2026 · Pos 18th of 22 · OR 99 · 1m2f56y Goo 132 · below its mark11/07/2026 · OR 99 par11/072OR 992 @ Thirsk 01/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 97 · 7f218y Goo 137 · beat its mark01/08/2026 · OR 97 par2 @ York 22/08/2026 · Pos 16th of 20 · OR 98 · 1m2f56y Goo 133 · below its mark22/08/2026 · OR 98 par22/082OR 98projClass-projected finish: 6th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-22York216th16th0
2026-08-01Thirsk22nd2nd0
2026-07-11York218th18th0
2026-02-19Bahrain?7th6th+1
2026-01-29Bahrain?1st1st0
2025-12-19Bahrain?12th12th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/0719/1211/0722/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1130% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength28%

Delivery trend +1.9% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 11.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/07/20251st15/261%100%+0.39
23/08/20251st11/142%100%+0.58
18/09/20258th15/261%42%-0.19
19/12/202512th11/271%8%-0.63
29/01/20261st12/137%100%+0.63
19/02/20267th4/179%33%-0.46
11/07/202618th50/10%19%+0.19
01/08/20262nd40/10%90%+0.90
22/08/202616th22/10%21%+0.21