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Dark Moon Rising

7yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 87

Ayr · Ladbrokes 'Bet 5 Get 30 New Customer Offer' Kilkerran Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f

#10

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Readily ended a losing sequence at York in July. Paid the price for big move into contention when fine sixth at the Ebor meeting and was possibly still paying for those exertions when down the field (behind Have Secret) there 11 days ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength25%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.6 /10 (raw 6.1)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.7
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Newcastle 16/01/2026 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR 87 · 1m2f42y Std 122 · beat its mark16/01/2026 · OR 87 par16/012OR 872 @ Lingfield 27/02/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 86 · 1m2f Std 121 · beat its mark27/02/2026 · OR 86 par3 @ Chelmsford City 12/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 86 · 1m2f Std 131 · beat its mark12/03/2026 · OR 86 par12/033OR 863 @ Lingfield 03/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 86 · 1m2f Std 133 · beat its mark03/04/2026 · OR 86 par2 @ York 13/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 86 · 1m3f188y Goo 121 · beat its mark13/05/2026 · OR 86 par13/052OR 862 @ York 12/06/2026 · Pos 12th of 16 · OR 84 · 1m2f56y Gd 120 · beat its mark12/06/2026 · OR 84 par4 @ York 10/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 81 · 1m2f56y Goo 138 · beat its mark10/07/2026 · OR 81 par10/074OR 812 @ York 22/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 20 · OR 87 · 1m2f56y Goo 122 · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 87 par3 @ York 06/09/2026 · Pos 13th of 15 · OR 87 · 1m2f56y GS 134 · below its mark06/09/2026 · OR 87 par6/093OR 87projClass-projected finish: 9th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-06York313th14th−1
2026-08-22York26th6th0
2026-07-10York41st3rd−2
2026-06-12York212th12th0
2026-05-13York25th5th0
2026-04-03Lingfield34th5th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/013/0410/076/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1120% of fieldRange 2-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength34%

Delivery trend -0.4% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 11.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/01/20268th18/15%42%+0.36
27/02/20265th17/255%60%+0.05
12/03/20262nd13/266%80%+0.14
03/04/20264th11/271%77%+0.06
13/05/20265th12/137%56%+0.19
12/06/202612th12/137%27%-0.10
10/07/20261st18/15%100%+0.95
22/08/20266th33/10%74%+0.74
06/09/202613th11/271%14%-0.57