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10

Financer

5yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 79

Ayr · Ladbrokes 'Bet 5 Get 30 New Customer Offer' Kilkerran Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f

#1

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

99%

Place Prob

80%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Winner of this corresponding event in 2024 and better than the result in last year's renewal. On a lower mark this time and showed a better attitude under pressure when landing a second success of the year at Beverley (8.5f, heavy) latest. Claims if in the same mood back up in distance.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.8
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Ripon 28/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 76 · 1m1f170y Goo 121 · beat its mark28/05/2026 · OR 76 par28/053OR 764 @ York 13/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 16 · OR 75 · 1m177y Goo 125 · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 75 par4 @ Carlisle 24/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 73 · 7f173y GF 130 · beat its mark24/06/2026 · OR 73 par24/064OR 735 @ Carlisle 04/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 72 · 1m1f Goo 146 · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 72 par4 @ Redcar 19/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR 73 · 1m2f1y Goo 130 · beat its mark19/07/2026 · OR 73 par19/074OR 734 @ York 25/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 15 · OR 73 · 7f192y Goo 134 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 73 par3 @ Haydock 08/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR 77 · 7f212y Goo 124 · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 77 par8/083OR 773 @ Pontefract 16/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 76 · 1m2f5y Goo 127 · beat its mark16/08/2026 · OR 76 par4 @ Beverley 30/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 76 · 1m100y Hvy 126 · beat its mark30/08/2026 · OR 76 par30/084OR 76projClass-projected finish: 4th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-30Beverley41st3rd−2
2026-08-16Pontefract32nd3rd−1
2026-08-08Haydock37th8th−1
2026-07-25York44th6th−2
2026-07-19Redcar41st3rd−2
2026-07-04Carlisle52nd6th−3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/054/078/0830/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 11100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +3.6% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/05/20264th11/271%67%-0.04
13/06/20265th20/10%73%+0.73
24/06/20265th4/179%69%-0.10
04/07/20262nd5/287%86%-0.01
19/07/20261st15/890%100%+0.10
25/07/20264th11/142%79%+0.36
08/08/20267th28/10%50%+0.50
16/08/20262nd14/126%86%+0.59
30/08/20261st4/179%100%+0.21