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6yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 91

Ayr · Ladbrokes 'Bet 5 Get 30 New Customer Offer' Kilkerran Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f

#9

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#9

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Useful handicapper who bounced back to form when 2¾-length fourth in a big-field York handicap last time. That performance can be marked up, and he's fairly treated if building on that.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 9.5 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.2
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Lingfield 15/12/2025 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 91 · 1m2f Std 128 · beat its mark15/12/2025 · OR 91 par15/122OR 914 @ Catterick 01/01/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR - · 1m7f156y Gd 1603 @ Doncaster 29/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 91 · 1m2f43y GS 132 · beat its mark29/03/2026 · OR 91 par29/033OR 912 @ Pontefract 21/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 91 · 1m2f5y Goo 126 · beat its mark21/04/2026 · OR 91 par2 @ York 15/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 15 · OR 95 · 1m2f56y Gd 133 · beat its mark15/05/2026 · OR 95 par15/052OR 952 @ Epsom Downs 05/06/2026 · Pos 12th of 16 · OR 95 · 1m2f17y Goo 123 · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 95 par2 @ York 11/07/2026 · Pos 14th of 22 · OR 94 · 1m2f56y Goo 127 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 94 par11/072OR 942 @ York 22/08/2026 · Pos 20th of 20 · OR 93 · 1m2f56y Goo 128 · below its mark22/08/2026 · OR 93 par3 @ York 06/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 15 · OR 91 · 1m2f56y GS 138 · beat its mark06/09/2026 · OR 91 par6/093OR 91projClass-projected finish: 8th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-06York34th5th−1
2026-08-22York220th20th0
2026-07-11York214th14th0
2026-06-05Epsom Downs212th12th0
2026-05-15York25th5th0
2026-04-21Pontefract21st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/1221/0411/076/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1140% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength75%

Delivery trend +8.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/12/20254th9/153%40%-0.13
01/01/20264th15/890%50%-0.40
29/03/20265th14/126%64%+0.37
21/04/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
15/05/20265th9/153%71%+0.19
05/06/202612th25/10%27%+0.27
11/07/202614th100/10%38%+0.38
22/08/202620th66/10%0%0.00
06/09/20264th28/10%79%+0.79