6
Impartiality
4yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 86
Ayr · Ladbrokes 'Bet 5 Get 30 New Customer Offer' Kilkerran Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f
#2
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#2
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Chester | 3 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-08-30 | Beverley | 3 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-08-11 | Hamilton | 3 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-13 | Chester | 3 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-16 | Thirsk | 3 | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-04-12 | Musselburgh | 3 | 9th | 10th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1190% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength95%
Delivery trend +2.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08/2025 | 12th | 22/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 20/09/2025 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 85% | +0.21 |
| 29/09/2025 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 50% | -0.38 |
| 12/04/2026 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 27% | -0.20 |
| 16/05/2026 | 8th | 7/1 | 63% | 42% | -0.21 |
| 13/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 89% | +0.13 |
| 11/08/2026 | 2nd | 28/1 | 0% | 92% | +0.92 |
| 30/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 89% | +0.03 |
| 12/09/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 89% | +0.07 |