11
Steel Raven
3yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 83
Ayr · Ladbrokes 'Bet 5 Get 30 New Customer Offer' Kilkerran Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f
#11
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength12%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 7.4 /10 (raw 6.0)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.2
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | York | 2 | 17th | 17th | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Goodwood | 3 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-07-07 | Pontefract | 3 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-01 | Thirsk | 4 | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-06-09 | Carlisle | 4 | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 110% of fieldRange 6-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength3%
Delivery trend -12.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/06/2026 | 3rd | 28/1 | 0% | 82% | +0.82 |
| 01/07/2026 | 3rd | 17/2 | 55% | 71% | +0.16 |
| 07/07/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 31/07/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 58% | +0.58 |
| 22/08/2026 | 17th | 125/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |