5
Tiernan
4yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 86
Ayr · Ladbrokes 'Bet 5 Get 30 New Customer Offer' Kilkerran Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f
#4
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength27%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.7
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Kempton | 3 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-08-21 | Hamilton | 2 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Hamilton | 3 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-07 | Pontefract | 3 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-30 | Carlisle | 2 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-05-15 | Hamilton | 3 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1160% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▬
Strength54%
Delivery trend -0.8% per run
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 5th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07/2025 | 3rd | 150/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 22/08/2025 | 2nd | 1/5 | 99% | 67% | -0.32 |
| 08/11/2025 | 22nd | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 15/05/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 17% | -0.52 |
| 30/05/2026 | 11th | 50/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 07/07/2026 | 2nd | 6/5 | 94% | 89% | -0.05 |
| 01/08/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 21/08/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 67% | -0.16 |
| 05/09/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 90% | +0.27 |