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9

Wild Thoughts

3yo Gelding · 9-1 · OR 89

Ayr · Ladbrokes 'Bet 5 Get 30 New Customer Offer' Kilkerran Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f

#5

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#5

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Quirky sort who completed a four-timer at Carlisle (1m) in May. Back on the up when smooth-travelling second at Newbury prior to finishing close third in this grade at Doncaster 7 days ago. Potentially interesting if things fall right on first start against his elders.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Redcar 20/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 56 · 7f219y Goo 131 · beat its mark20/04/2026 · OR 56 par20/046OR 566 @ Lingfield 28/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 56 · 1m1y Std 132 · beat its mark28/04/2026 · OR 56 par6 @ Kempton 30/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 56 · 7f Sta 138 · beat its mark30/04/2026 · OR 56 par30/046OR 564 @ Windsor 11/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 77 · 1m31y Goo 132 · beat its mark11/05/2026 · OR 77 par4 @ Carlisle 30/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 84 · 7f173y Goo 134 · beat its mark30/05/2026 · OR 84 par30/054OR 842 @ Newmarket 11/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 89 · 1m GF 125 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 89 par3 @ Goodwood 30/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 19 · OR 89 · 1m Goo 134 · beat its mark30/07/2026 · OR 89 par30/073OR 893 @ Newbury 15/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR 89 · 1m2f GF 129 · beat its mark15/08/2026 · OR 89 par2 @ Doncaster 10/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 89 · 1m2f43y Goo 123 · beat its mark10/09/2026 · OR 89 par10/092OR 89projClass-projected finish: 5th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-10Doncaster23rd3rd0
2026-08-15Newbury32nd3rd−1
2026-07-30Goodwood39th10th−1
2026-07-11Newmarket27th7th0
2026-05-30Carlisle42nd4th−2
2026-05-11Windsor41st3rd−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/0411/0530/0710/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1180% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +4.4% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/04/20261st6/168%100%+0.32
28/04/20261st2/999%100%+0.01
30/04/20261st2/799%100%+0.02
11/05/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
30/05/20262nd7/282%86%+0.04
11/07/20267th14/126%14%-0.12
30/07/20269th22/10%56%+0.56
15/08/20262nd6/168%67%-0.02
10/09/20263rd20/10%80%+0.80