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4

Atmosphere

4yo Gelding · 9-11 · OR 72

Ayr · IDP Supporting Care Through Better Purchasing Handicap (Div 1) · 1m

#4

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

3%

Place Prob

9%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Enthusiastic sort who was successful 3 times during 2025. Knocking on the door with back-to-back seconds at Kempton over the spring. Did all he could when 9¼ lengths third at Ascot (good) last time, without scaling the heights of his all-weather form. Has run well on soft ground previously.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength55%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Sandown 29/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 70 · 1m Sft 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/08/2025 · OR 70 par29/084OR 705 @ Ayr 19/09/2025 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 69 · 1m Sft 135 · below its mark19/09/2025 · OR 69 par5 @ Kempton 08/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 68 · 1m Sta 131 · beat its mark08/10/2025 · OR 68 par8/105OR 685 @ Kempton 19/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 71 · 1m Sta 132 · beat its mark19/11/2025 · OR 71 par5 @ Kempton 18/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 72 · 1m Sta 132 · beat its mark18/02/2026 · OR 72 par18/025OR 725 @ Kempton 18/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 72 · 1m Sta 132 · beat its mark18/03/2026 · OR 72 par5 @ Kempton 08/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 73 · 7f Sta 133 · beat its mark08/04/2026 · OR 73 par8/045OR 734 @ Epsom Downs 16/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 73 · 7f3y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark16/07/2026 · OR 73 par4 @ Ascot 04/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 73 · 1m Goo 142 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/09/2026 · OR 73 par4/094OR 73projClass-projected finish: 4th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-04Ascot43rd2nd+1
2026-07-16Epsom Downs45th4th+1
2026-04-08Kempton52nd2nd0
2026-03-18Kempton52nd2nd0
2026-02-18Kempton53rd3rd0
2025-11-19Kempton53rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/0819/118/044/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1282% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength73%

Delivery trend +0.6% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 3rd of 12.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/08/20253rd8/158%83%+0.25
19/09/20258th4/179%13%-0.66
08/10/20251st11/271%100%+0.29
19/11/20253rd3/184%82%-0.02
18/02/20263rd2/189%80%-0.09
18/03/20262nd11/271%92%+0.21
08/04/20262nd11/893%91%-0.02
16/07/20265th11/893%0%-0.93
04/09/20263rd16/116%80%+0.64