IvyArcIvyArc
5

Havana Touch

5yo Gelding · 9-11 · OR 72

Ayr · IDP Supporting Care Through Better Purchasing Handicap (Div 1) · 1m

#6

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#6

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

In-form 5-y-o who wasn't beaten far on just his third turf start at Ripon in June. Subsequently notched a fourth all-weather win in this grade at Kempton and confirmed he's better than ever when runner-up at Lingfield last time. Could be poised to land a first victory on this surface.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength48%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.2
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Chelmsford City 11/12/2025 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 65 · 1m Std 133 · below its mark11/12/2025 · OR 65 par11/125OR 655 @ Southwell 17/01/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 63 · 1m13y Std 128 · beat its mark17/01/2026 · OR 63 par6 @ Lingfield 31/01/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 61 · 1m1y Std 131 · below its mark31/01/2026 · OR 61 par31/016OR 616 @ Wolverhampton 17/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 60 · 1m142y Std 135 · beat its mark17/03/2026 · OR 60 par5 @ Kempton 01/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 62 · 1m Sta 127 · beat its mark01/04/2026 · OR 62 par1/045OR 625 @ Lingfield 30/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 66 · 7f1y Std 131 · beat its mark30/04/2026 · OR 66 par5 @ Ripon 03/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 67 · 1m Gd 132 · beat its mark03/06/2026 · OR 67 par3/065OR 675 @ Kempton 10/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 67 · 1m Sta 127 · beat its mark10/06/2026 · OR 67 par5 @ Lingfield 25/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 71 · 1m1y Std 136 · beat its mark25/08/2026 · OR 71 par25/085OR 71projClass-projected finish: 1st of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-25Lingfield52nd2nd0
2026-06-10Kempton51st1st0
2026-06-03Ripon56th6th0
2026-04-30Lingfield52nd2nd0
2026-04-01Kempton51st1st0
2026-03-17Wolverhampton62nd3rd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/1217/033/0625/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1273% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength76%

Delivery trend -3.3% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 4th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/12/20259th50/10%0%0.00
17/01/20268th50/10%36%+0.36
31/01/20269th40/10%27%+0.27
17/03/20262nd14/126%90%+0.64
01/04/20261st13/891%100%+0.09
30/04/20262nd4/179%88%+0.09
03/06/20266th9/276%55%-0.22
10/06/20261st11/486%100%+0.14
25/08/20262nd10/382%88%+0.05