2
It'sneverjustone
4yo Gelding · 9-13 · OR 74
Ayr · IDP Supporting Care Through Better Purchasing Handicap (Div 1) · 1m
#10
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength54%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 5 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Haydock | 4 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-07-28 | Galway | BHA78 | 14th | 17th | −3 |
| 2026-06-14 | Salisbury | 4 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-04-18 | Thirsk | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-03-29 | Doncaster | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-10-27 | Redcar | 3 | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 129% of fieldRange 7-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -6.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 11th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/07/2025 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 13/09/2025 | 11th | 3/1 | 84% | 0% | -0.84 |
| 14/10/2025 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 27/10/2025 | 5th | 18/1 | 5% | 56% | +0.50 |
| 29/03/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 80% | +0.09 |
| 18/04/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 73% | +0.07 |
| 14/06/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 17% | -0.62 |
| 28/07/2026 | 14th | 9/1 | 53% | 7% | -0.45 |
| 03/09/2026 | 10th | 14/1 | 26% | 25% | -0.01 |