IvyArcIvyArc
13

Keats House

4yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 58

Ayr · IDP Supporting Care Through Better Purchasing Handicap (Div 1) · 1m

#12

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#12

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Well-treated on his form in 3-y-o handicaps last year, however, he fared no better than on recent starts when failing to justify support at Hamilton last time (beaten 6½ lengths). Hopes of a revival pinned on addition of first-time blinkers (visor didn't have the desired effect previously).

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength26%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Musselburgh 14/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 61 · 1m2y Goo 132 · beat its mark14/09/2025 · OR 61 par14/096OR 615 @ Ayr 19/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 61 · 1m Sft 133 · beat its mark19/09/2025 · OR 61 par5 @ Nottingham 15/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 67 · 1m75y Goo 132 · beat its mark15/10/2025 · OR 67 par15/105OR 675 @ Ripon 25/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 68 · 1m Goo 133 · beat its mark25/04/2026 · OR 68 par5 @ Pontefract 22/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 67 · 1m6y Goo 127 · beat its mark22/05/2026 · OR 67 par22/055OR 676 @ Redcar 20/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 65 · 7f219y Gd 142 · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 65 par6 @ Musselburgh 30/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 63 · 1m208y Goo 135 · beat its mark30/06/2026 · OR 63 par30/066OR 636 @ Ayr 27/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 61 · 1m Goo 138 · beat its mark27/07/2026 · OR 61 par6 @ Hamilton 02/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 59 · 1m68y Sft 137 · beat its mark02/09/2026 · OR 59 par2/096OR 59projClass-projected finish: 11th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-02Hamilton64th5th−1
2026-07-27Ayr65th6th−1
2026-06-30Musselburgh65th6th−1
2026-06-20Redcar65th6th−1
2026-05-22Pontefract57th7th0
2026-04-25Ripon57th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/0925/0430/062/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1218% of fieldRange 6-12 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▬
Strength21%

Delivery trend -0.8% per run

What the projection says

Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 10th of 12.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/09/20251st3/184%100%+0.16
19/09/20254th13/266%63%-0.03
15/10/20252nd15/261%90%+0.29
25/04/20267th11/142%33%-0.09
22/05/20267th25/10%33%+0.33
20/06/20265th8/158%64%+0.06
30/06/20265th15/261%33%-0.27
27/07/20265th18/15%50%+0.45
02/09/20264th5/174%67%-0.07