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Orangesandlemons

4yo Filly · 9-12 · OR 73

Ayr · IDP Supporting Care Through Better Purchasing Handicap (Div 1) · 1m

#9

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Doubled her tally in much better company at Nottingham last October. Hasn't gone on from her reappearance this year, but booking of Daniel Tudhope catches the eye on return from 3-month absence (has gone well fresh).

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength62%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 3.6)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 5
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Carlisle 30/05/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 73 · 7f173y Goo 133 · beat its mark30/05/2025 · OR 73 par30/055OR 734 @ Carlisle 25/06/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 75 · 6f195y Sft 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/06/2025 · OR 75 par4 @ Doncaster 10/07/2025 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 76 · 7f6y Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/07/2025 · OR 76 par10/074OR 765 @ Carlisle 01/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 75 · 6f195y Gd 134 · beat its mark01/09/2025 · OR 75 par2 @ Nottingham 02/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 73 · 1m75y Goo 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/10/2025 · OR 73 par2/102OR 733 @ Newmarket 22/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 77 · 1m Gd 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/10/2025 · OR 77 par3 @ Wolverhampton 17/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 77 · 1m142y Std 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/04/2026 · OR 77 par17/043OR 774 @ Nottingham 09/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 77 · 1m75y Goo 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/05/2026 · OR 77 par5 @ Nottingham 03/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 75 · 1m2f50y Goo 135 · below its mark03/06/2026 · OR 75 par3/065OR 75projClass-projected finish: 7th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-03Nottingham59th9th0
2026-05-09Nottingham48th7th+1
2026-04-17Wolverhampton33rd1st+2
2025-10-22Newmarket35th3rd+2
2025-10-02Nottingham21st-3th+3
2025-09-01Carlisle56th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/051/0917/043/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1227% of fieldRange 9-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -5.3% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/05/20252nd15/261%86%+0.25
25/06/20252nd9/488%88%-0.01
10/07/20256th7/282%50%-0.32
01/09/20256th9/276%50%-0.26
02/10/20251st16/116%100%+0.84
22/10/20255th15/261%43%-0.18
17/04/20263rd11/271%50%-0.21
09/05/20268th4/179%30%-0.49
03/06/20269th12/137%11%-0.26