12
Perfidia
4yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 61
Ayr · IDP Supporting Care Through Better Purchasing Handicap (Div 1) · 1m
#11
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength29%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Redcar | 6 | 10th | 11th | −1 |
| 2026-08-11 | Carlisle | 6 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-28 | Beverley | 6 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-07-18 | Nottingham | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Musselburgh | 6 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-25 | Nottingham | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 120% of fieldRange 10-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength0%
Delivery trend -1.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 12th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/05/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 80% | -0.04 |
| 03/06/2026 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 64% | +0.22 |
| 10/06/2026 | 9th | 5/1 | 74% | 20% | -0.54 |
| 25/06/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 30/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 83% | -0.04 |
| 18/07/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 80% | -0.09 |
| 28/07/2026 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 14% | -0.65 |
| 11/08/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 71% | -0.05 |
| 09/09/2026 | 10th | 11/1 | 42% | 50% | +0.08 |