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6

Runninsonofagun

4yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 71

Ayr · IDP Supporting Care Through Better Purchasing Handicap (Div 1) · 1m

#2

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

47%

Place Prob

35%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Front runner who enhanced a good course record when scoring over C&D in July. Justified support to land a second success under the returning Jason Hart at Musselburgh the following month. Some mitigation for rare poor effort at Carlisle latest and probably worth another chance.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength26%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.2
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Carlisle 08/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 60 · 1m1f Sft 120 · beat its mark08/06/2026 · OR 60 par8/065OR 606 @ Carlisle 15/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 60 · 7f173y Goo 131 · beat its mark15/06/2026 · OR 60 par6 @ Ayr 13/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 60 · 1m Goo 130 · beat its mark13/07/2026 · OR 60 par13/076OR 605 @ Ayr 20/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 60 · 1m GF 125 · beat its mark20/07/2026 · OR 60 par6 @ Ayr 27/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 65 · 1m Goo 142 · beat its mark27/07/2026 · OR 65 par27/076OR 655 @ Ayr 08/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 67 · 7f50y Goo 139 · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 67 par5 @ Catterick 17/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 68 · 7f6y Goo 138 · beat its mark17/08/2026 · OR 68 par17/085OR 685 @ Musselburgh 24/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 68 · 1m208y Gd 138 · beat its mark24/08/2026 · OR 68 par5 @ Carlisle 09/09/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 71 · 6f195y Goo 136 · below its mark09/09/2026 · OR 71 par9/095OR 71projClass-projected finish: 8th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-09Carlisle510th10th0
2026-08-24Musselburgh51st1st0
2026-08-17Catterick56th6th0
2026-08-08Ayr52nd2nd0
2026-07-27Ayr62nd3rd−1
2026-07-20Ayr53rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/0620/0717/089/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1255% of fieldRange 9-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -8.7% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/06/20263rd18/15%80%+0.75
15/06/20265th5/287%64%-0.23
13/07/20261st2/189%100%+0.11
20/07/20263rd9/488%75%-0.13
27/07/20262nd8/1597%88%-0.10
08/08/20262nd4/179%91%+0.12
17/08/20266th5/287%38%-0.49
24/08/20261st9/488%100%+0.12
09/09/202610th8/158%0%-0.58