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Sanafi Zabeel

5yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 68

Ayr · IDP Supporting Care Through Better Purchasing Handicap (Div 1) · 1m

#7

Rank

Odds

15/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#7

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Landed second all-the-way Hamilton win of a productive first season with Jim Goldie at Hamilton last month. Still in good heart when 4 lengths third at Catterick since, though remains on a career-high mark.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength56%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 3.7)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Hamilton 15/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 64 · 1m1f35y Gd 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/05/2026 · OR 64 par15/054OR 645 @ Hamilton 27/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 63 · 1m68y Goo 128 · beat its mark27/05/2026 · OR 63 par4 @ Ayr 19/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 66 · 1m2f Sft 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 66 par19/064OR 664 @ Hamilton 11/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 66 · 1m68y Goo 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 66 par4 @ Hamilton 16/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 66 · 1m68y Goo 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/07/2026 · OR 66 par16/074OR 665 @ Hamilton 01/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 65 · 1m68y Gd 132 · beat its mark01/08/2026 · OR 65 par5 @ Ayr 08/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 64 · 7f50y Goo 136 · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 64 par8/085OR 645 @ Hamilton 11/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 64 · 1m68y Goo 135 · beat its mark11/08/2026 · OR 64 par5 @ Carlisle 27/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 68 · 1m1f Goo 158 · beat its mark27/08/2026 · OR 68 par27/085OR 68projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-27Carlisle53rd3rd0
2026-08-11Hamilton51st1st0
2026-08-08Ayr55th5th0
2026-08-01Hamilton54th4th0
2026-07-16Hamilton43rd2nd+1
2026-07-11Hamilton43rd2nd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/0511/078/0827/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1245% of fieldRange 3-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength36%

Delivery trend -3.4% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/05/20263rd16/116%78%+0.62
27/05/20261st16/583%100%+0.17
19/06/20269th9/276%11%-0.65
11/07/20263rd7/282%50%-0.32
16/07/20263rd5/174%50%-0.24
01/08/20264th3/184%67%-0.18
08/08/20265th15/261%64%+0.03
11/08/20261st11/1094%100%+0.06
27/08/20263rd15/890%71%-0.19