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11

Second Fiddle

7yo Mare · 9-4 · OR 65

Ayr · IDP Supporting Care Through Better Purchasing Handicap (Div 1) · 1m

#5

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#5

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Successful 6 times in the second half of last year (5 of those wins at Newcastle). Has been running consistently well without getting her head in front recently, finishing ½-length second in Newcastle handicap on return to all-weather last time. Should give another good account.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength64%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 6.9)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Hamilton 17/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 67 · 1m1f35y Gd 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/05/2026 · OR 67 par17/053OR 675 @ Newcastle 02/06/2026 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR 67 · 1m5y Std 127 · below its mark02/06/2026 · OR 67 par5 @ Hamilton 17/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 65 · 1m68y Goo 132 · beat its mark17/06/2026 · OR 65 par17/065OR 656 @ Musselburgh 30/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 60 · 1m208y Goo 132 · beat its mark30/06/2026 · OR 60 par6 @ Hamilton 11/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 61 · 1m68y Goo 141 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 61 par11/076OR 615 @ Hamilton 17/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 61 · 1m68y Goo 132 · beat its mark17/07/2026 · OR 61 par5 @ Hamilton 11/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 64 · 1m68y Goo 135 · beat its mark11/08/2026 · OR 64 par11/085OR 644 @ Hamilton 21/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 64 · 1m1f35y GS 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/08/2026 · OR 64 par6 @ Newcastle 05/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 63 · 1m5y Std 133 · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 63 par5/096OR 63projClass-projected finish: 5th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Newcastle62nd3rd−1
2026-08-21Hamilton44th3rd+1
2026-08-11Hamilton53rd3rd0
2026-07-17Hamilton53rd3rd0
2026-07-11Hamilton62nd3rd−1
2026-06-30Musselburgh63rd4th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/0530/0611/085/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1264% of fieldRange 2-9 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength58%

Delivery trend -0.6% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 5th of 12.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/05/20268th66/10%0%0.00
02/06/202611th40/10%9%+0.09
17/06/20264th33/10%40%+0.40
30/06/20263rd11/271%67%-0.04
11/07/20262nd13/891%80%-0.11
17/07/20263rd11/486%50%-0.36
11/08/20263rd5/174%75%+0.01
21/08/20264th12/137%63%+0.26
05/09/20262nd7/282%88%+0.06