Selection
4yo Filly · 10-0 · OR 75
Ayr · IDP Supporting Care Through Better Purchasing Handicap (Div 1) · 1m
#8
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 4.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-29 | Pontefract | 4 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-05-22 | Pontefract | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Thirsk | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Southwell | 4 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-04-05 | Southwell | 4 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-03-21 | Newcastle | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/12/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 40% | -0.07 |
| 30/01/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 60% | +0.44 |
| 24/02/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 90% | +0.37 |
| 21/03/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 90% | +0.14 |
| 05/04/2026 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 25/04/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 16/05/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 22/05/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 89% | +0.07 |
| 29/06/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 33% | -0.40 |