8
Tarmonbarry Kid
3yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 74
Ayr · IDP Supporting Care Through Better Purchasing Handicap (Div 1) · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
43%
Place Prob
34%
Rank
#1
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength17%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.2
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Beverley | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Hamilton | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Doncaster | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-24 | Doncaster | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-11-07 | Newcastle | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-09-30 | Newcastle | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 12100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +5.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 43% | +0.17 |
| 30/09/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 07/11/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 24/04/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 17% | +0.01 |
| 16/05/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 17/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 60% | -0.28 |
| 29/08/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |