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4

Barley

7yo Gelding · 9-11 · OR 68

Ayr · IDP Supporting Care Through Better Purchasing Handicap (Div 2) · 1m

#5

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Ended very long losing run in a handicap at Carlisle 8 days ago. Largely consistent previously this year but now faces a penalty and may be pushing it to think he'll go back-to-back after so long.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength73%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Carlisle 24/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 68 · 7f173y GF 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark24/06/2026 · OR 68 par24/064OR 684 @ Carlisle 04/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 69 · 7f173y Goo 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 69 par5 @ Thirsk 16/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 68 · 7f218y Goo 128 · beat its mark16/07/2026 · OR 68 par16/075OR 684 @ York 25/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 15 · OR 68 · 7f192y Goo 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 68 par4 @ Redcar 08/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 69 · 7f219y Goo 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 69 par8/084OR 694 @ Ripon 15/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 69 · 1m Goo 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/08/2026 · OR 69 par5 @ Carlisle 19/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 69 · 7f173y Sft 141 · beat its mark19/08/2026 · OR 69 par19/085OR 694 @ York 06/09/2026 · Pos 13th of 19 · OR 68 · 7f192y GS 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/09/2026 · OR 68 par5 @ Carlisle 09/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 68 · 7f173y Goo 133 · beat its mark09/09/2026 · OR 68 par9/095OR 68projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-09Carlisle51st1st0
2026-09-06York413th12th+1
2026-08-19Carlisle54th4th0
2026-08-15Ripon44th3rd+1
2026-08-08Redcar42nd1st+1
2026-07-25York43rd2nd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/0625/0719/089/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1375% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength69%

Delivery trend -2.9% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 4th of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/06/20262nd15/261%89%+0.28
04/07/20263rd5/174%67%-0.07
16/07/20263rd9/276%60%-0.16
25/07/20263rd25/10%86%+0.86
08/08/20262nd11/271%92%+0.21
15/08/20264th13/266%67%+0.01
19/08/20264th7/282%63%-0.19
06/09/202613th8/158%33%-0.25
09/09/20261st4/179%100%+0.21