Green Pursuit
4yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 71
Ayr · IDP Supporting Care Through Better Purchasing Handicap (Div 2) · 1m
#9
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 5.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | Thirsk | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-14 | Doncaster | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-18 | Carlisle | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Thirsk | 4 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-03-29 | Doncaster | 4 | 11th | 10th | +1 |
| 2025-10-24 | Doncaster | 4 | 11th | 10th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +0.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07/2025 | 4th | 22/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 26/07/2025 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |
| 09/09/2025 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 90% | +0.27 |
| 24/10/2025 | 11th | 12/1 | 37% | 23% | -0.14 |
| 29/03/2026 | 11th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 18/04/2026 | 5th | 17/2 | 55% | 64% | +0.08 |
| 18/05/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 78% | -0.01 |
| 14/06/2026 | 5th | 17/2 | 55% | 60% | +0.05 |
| 14/08/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 93% | +0.77 |