Mandarin Spirit
3yo Filly · 9-7 · OR 72
Ayr · IDP Supporting Care Through Better Purchasing Handicap (Div 2) · 1m
#7
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 4.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | Haydock | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Beverley | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-05-31 | Thirsk | 4 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-05-04 | Beverley | 4 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-09-26 | Newmarket | 1 | 8th | 3rd | +5 |
| 2025-07-25 | Thirsk | 4 | 1st | 0th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.1% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 9th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/06/2025 | 2nd | 5/6 | 96% | 83% | -0.12 |
| 25/07/2025 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 26/09/2025 | 8th | 66/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 04/05/2026 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 38% | +0.32 |
| 31/05/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 14/07/2026 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 0% | -0.42 |
| 08/08/2026 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 25% | -0.17 |