12
Mayor Of Maghera
4yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 60
Ayr · IDP Supporting Care Through Better Purchasing Handicap (Div 2) · 1m
#12
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Musselburgh | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-24 | Musselburgh | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Ayr | 5 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Ayr | 6 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-07-20 | Ayr | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Musselburgh | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1317% of fieldRange 5-13 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength28%
Delivery trend +1.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/03/2026 | 14th | 200/1 | 0% | 28% | +0.28 |
| 05/06/2026 | 3rd | 40/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 19/06/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 63% | -0.09 |
| 30/06/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 20/07/2026 | 7th | 11/1 | 42% | 25% | -0.17 |
| 27/07/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 38% | +0.01 |
| 08/08/2026 | 10th | 100/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 24/08/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |
| 12/09/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |