13
Penelope's Sister
6yo Mare · 8-9 · OR 56
Ayr · IDP Supporting Care Through Better Purchasing Handicap (Div 2) · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#3
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength26%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Musselburgh | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-09-02 | Hamilton | 6 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-08-10 | Ayr | 6 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-07-27 | Ayr | 6 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-06 | Ayr | 6 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-19 | Ayr | 6 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1342% of fieldRange 12-13 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength0%
Delivery trend -0.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/05/2026 | 7th | 11/1 | 42% | 0% | -0.42 |
| 20/05/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 04/06/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 19/06/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 06/07/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 67% | -0.15 |
| 27/07/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 10/08/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 64% | -0.15 |
| 02/09/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 44% | -0.24 |
| 12/09/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |