Quiet Resolve
5yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 70
Ayr · IDP Supporting Care Through Better Purchasing Handicap (Div 2) · 1m
#10
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Doncaster | 5 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Hamilton | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Chester | 4 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-07-11 | Hamilton | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-06-02 | Newcastle | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-15 | Hamilton | 4 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -0.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/09/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 85% | +0.14 |
| 18/09/2025 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 38% | -0.44 |
| 03/05/2026 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 15/05/2026 | 2nd | 17/2 | 55% | 89% | +0.34 |
| 02/06/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 55% | -0.24 |
| 11/07/2026 | 4th | 17/2 | 55% | 25% | -0.30 |
| 25/07/2026 | 6th | 22/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 11/08/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 88% | +0.19 |
| 11/09/2026 | 12th | 40/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |