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Roaring Ralph

6yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 73

Ayr · IDP Supporting Care Through Better Purchasing Handicap (Div 2) · 1m

#2

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

10%

Rank

#2

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Thriving earlier this year with 5 wins from 6 starts, including one at this track, but he has gone off the boil lately. Back down to last winning mark but hard to be too confident about at present.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength46%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Southwell 04/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 57 · 1m13y Std 127 · beat its mark04/03/2026 · OR 57 par4/036OR 576 @ Southwell 28/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 59 · 1m14y Std 134 · beat its mark28/03/2026 · OR 59 par5 @ Southwell 07/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 68 · 1m13y Std 133 · beat its mark07/05/2026 · OR 68 par7/055OR 685 @ Ayr 20/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 70 · 7f50y GF 135 · beat its mark20/05/2026 · OR 70 par5 @ Wetherby 15/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 73 · 1m Goo 139 · beat its mark15/06/2026 · OR 73 par15/065OR 735 @ Beverley 23/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 73 · 7f96y Goo 140 · beat its mark23/06/2026 · OR 73 par4 @ York 24/07/2026 · Pos 17th of 18 · OR 76 · 7f Goo 131 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark24/07/2026 · OR 76 par24/074OR 765 @ Thirsk 14/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 15 · OR 75 · 7f218y Goo 135 · beat its mark14/08/2026 · OR 75 par4 @ Southwell 03/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 74 · 1m14y Std 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/09/2026 · OR 74 par3/094OR 74projClass-projected finish: 8th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-03Southwell45th4th+1
2026-08-14Thirsk57th7th0
2026-07-24York417th16th+1
2026-06-23Beverley53rd3rd0
2026-06-15Wetherby51st1st0
2026-05-20Ayr51st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/0320/0524/073/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1392% of fieldRange 4-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength45%

Delivery trend +2.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/03/20261st11/486%100%+0.14
28/03/20261st5/696%100%+0.04
07/05/20262nd11/271%90%+0.19
20/05/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
15/06/20261st15/261%100%+0.39
23/06/20263rd10/382%60%-0.22
24/07/202617th16/116%6%-0.10
14/08/20267th28/10%57%+0.57
03/09/20265th16/116%50%+0.34