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Sailthisshipalone

5yo Gelding · 9-13 · OR 74

Ayr · IDP Supporting Care Through Better Purchasing Handicap (Div 2) · 1m

#4

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#4

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won at Pontefract on reappearance/stable debut in April and produced back-to-back thirds that have worked out pretty well there in July. Below last winning mark now and he's one to take seriously back down in grade after 62 days off.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength76%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Pontefract 06/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 75 · 1m6y Sft 140 · beat its mark06/10/2025 · OR 75 par6/105OR 755 @ Musselburgh 05/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 73 · 1m2y Sft 135 · beat its mark05/11/2025 · OR 73 par4 @ Wolverhampton 25/11/2025 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 75 · 1m142y Std 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/11/2025 · OR 75 par25/114OR 755 @ Pontefract 07/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 75 · 1m6y GS 135 · beat its mark07/04/2026 · OR 75 par4 @ Pontefract 29/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 78 · 1m6y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/04/2026 · OR 78 par29/044OR 784 @ Doncaster 05/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 78 · 7f213y GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 78 par4 @ Newcastle 26/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 14 · OR 77 · 1m5y Sta 139 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark26/06/2026 · OR 77 par26/064OR 775 @ Pontefract 07/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 75 · 1m6y Goo 142 · beat its mark07/07/2026 · OR 75 par4 @ Pontefract 17/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 75 · 1m6y Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/07/2026 · OR 75 par17/074OR 75projClass-projected finish: 4th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-17Pontefract43rd2nd+1
2026-07-07Pontefract53rd3rd0
2026-06-26Newcastle49th8th+1
2026-06-05Doncaster43rd2nd+1
2026-04-29Pontefract44th3rd+1
2026-04-07Pontefract51st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/107/0426/0617/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1383% of fieldRange 4-11 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength48%

Delivery trend -4.1% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 3rd of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/10/20257th16/116%45%+0.30
05/11/20251st7/282%100%+0.18
25/11/20257th12/137%33%-0.04
07/04/20261st7/163%100%+0.37
29/04/20264th3/184%63%-0.22
05/06/20263rd9/276%50%-0.26
26/06/20269th22/10%38%+0.38
07/07/20263rd9/276%75%-0.01
17/07/20263rd10/382%60%-0.22