Trinculo

3yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 68

Ayr · IDP Supporting Care Through Better Purchasing Handicap (Div 2) · 1m

#11

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

★★★ Timeform

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark

Move▼1

Strength77%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.8)

Highest class: 2

Recent avg: C3.8

Today: 5

Class gap: +1.3

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-07-02	Kempton	5	5th	5th	0	5.0
2026-05-25	Windsor	4	3rd	2nd	+1	8.2
2026-05-04	Kempton	4	3rd	2nd	+1	8.2
2025-06-06	Epsom Downs	2	8th	4th	+3	5.6

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish12th of 138% of fieldRange 13-13 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▼

Strength0%

Delivery trend -14.2% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 12th of 13. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
06/06/2025	8th	50/1	0%	13%	+0.13
04/05/2026	3rd	16/5	83%	78%	-0.05
25/05/2026	3rd	7/1	63%	33%	-0.30
02/07/2026	5th	5/2	87%	60%	-0.27