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8

You Sexy Thing

3yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 72

Ayr · IDP Supporting Care Through Better Purchasing Handicap (Div 2) · 1m

#8

Rank

Odds

13/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Off the mark at Sandown last August but hasn't won since. Had little racing this year but ran well when fourth of 8 in a handicap over 7f at Ascot 13 days ago and could step up for that return from 12 weeks off dropped in grade and back up to 1m.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength69%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 6.6)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 5
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Newmarket 18/05/2025 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR - · 6f GF 133 · HIGHER CLASS18/0544 @ Sandown 13/06/2025 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR - · 7f Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS3 @ Haydock 19/07/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR - · 6f212y Gd 133 · HIGHER CLASS19/0734 @ Newmarket 09/08/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 72 · 7f GF 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/08/2025 · OR 72 par4 @ Sandown 30/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 71 · 7f Sft 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/08/2025 · OR 71 par30/084OR 713 @ Doncaster 11/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 75 · 7f6y Goo 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/09/2025 · OR 75 par2 @ Newmarket 04/10/2025 · Pos 25th of 26 · OR 75 · 7f Goo 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/10/2025 · OR 75 par4/102OR 755 @ Newbury 11/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 74 · 1m GS 134 · beat its mark11/06/2026 · OR 74 par4 @ Ascot 04/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 73 · 7f Goo 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/09/2026 · OR 73 par4/094OR 73projClass-projected finish: 7th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-04Ascot44th3rd+1
2026-06-11Newbury56th6th0
2025-10-04Newmarket225th21th+3
2025-09-11Doncaster33rd1st+2
2025-08-30Sandown41st0th+1
2025-08-09Newmarket46th5th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/059/084/104/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1358% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength75%

Delivery trend -0.5% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 13.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/05/20254th16/116%40%+0.24
13/06/20255th16/116%20%+0.04
19/07/20255th10/147%33%-0.14
09/08/20256th12/137%17%-0.20
30/08/20251st9/153%100%+0.47
11/09/20253rd25/10%75%+0.75
04/10/202525th40/10%4%+0.04
11/06/20266th8/158%44%-0.13
04/09/20264th15/261%57%-0.03