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8

Angela's Baar

3yo Filly · 9-7 · OR 62

Ayr · Ladbrokes 'Get Racing Bet Builder Winnings Boosts' Handicap · 7f 50y

#14

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#14

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Has yet to make any real impact since sent handicapping, proving too free in a first-time visor (discarded) when last of 7 over 1m at Pontefract in July. Assessor relinquishes his grip further if return to this shorter trip has positive effect.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength63%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Held its own mid-division in 5 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Pontefract 09/06/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR - · 6f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS9/0654 @ Wetherby 19/06/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR - · 7f GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Thirsk 08/08/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR - · 5f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS8/0845 @ Wolverhampton 23/02/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 73 · 6f20y Std 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/02/2026 · OR 73 par5 @ Hamilton 15/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 70 · 1m68y Gd 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/05/2026 · OR 70 par15/055OR 705 @ Carlisle 08/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 67 · 7f173y Sft 129 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark08/06/2026 · OR 67 par5 @ Ripon 17/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 67 · 1m1f170y Gd 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/06/2026 · OR 67 par17/065OR 676 @ Pontefract 17/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 64 · 1m6y Goo 131 · below its mark17/07/2026 · OR 64 par17/076OR 64projClass-projected finish: 13th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-17Pontefract67th7th0
2026-06-17Ripon55th4th+1
2026-06-08Carlisle58th7th+1
2026-05-15Hamilton56th5th+1
2026-02-23Wolverhampton55th4th+1
2025-08-08Thirsk44th2nd+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/0623/0217/0617/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 140% of fieldRange 4-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength19%

Delivery trend +2.7% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 14th of 14. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/06/20252nd15/261%89%+0.28
19/06/20256th2/189%29%-0.61
08/08/20254th3/184%57%-0.27
23/02/20265th25/10%50%+0.50
15/05/20266th25/10%38%+0.38
08/06/20268th18/15%13%+0.07
17/06/20265th50/10%43%+0.43
17/07/20267th14/126%0%-0.26