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6

Blufferonthebus

5yo Mare · 9-8 · OR 60

Ayr · Ladbrokes 'Get Racing Bet Builder Winnings Boosts' Handicap · 7f 50y

#5

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#5

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Successful 3 times during a busy 2025 campaign and went close to adding to her tally at Carlisle (1m) in June. However, has looked in a lull since, eased off when seventh of 9 back at that venue 4 weeks ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength59%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.2
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Newcastle 16/12/2025 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR 65 · 7f14y Std 135 · below its mark16/12/2025 · OR 65 par16/126OR 655 @ Beverley 15/04/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 65 · 1m100y Goo 131 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark15/04/2026 · OR 65 par4 @ Newcastle 01/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 64 · 7f14y Std 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/05/2026 · OR 64 par1/054OR 645 @ Beverley 12/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 63 · 1m100y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/05/2026 · OR 63 par5 @ Catterick 21/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 63 · 7f6y Goo 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/05/2026 · OR 63 par21/055OR 635 @ Carlisle 08/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 63 · 7f173y Sft 136 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/06/2026 · OR 63 par5 @ Carlisle 15/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 63 · 6f195y Goo 137 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/06/2026 · OR 63 par15/065OR 636 @ Beverley 03/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 3 · OR 64 · 1m100y Goo 145 · below its mark03/07/2026 · OR 64 par5 @ Carlisle 19/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 62 · 7f173y Sft 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/08/2026 · OR 62 par19/085OR 62projClass-projected finish: 10th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-19Carlisle57th6th+1
2026-07-03Beverley63rd3rd0
2026-06-15Carlisle59th8th+1
2026-06-08Carlisle52nd1st+1
2026-05-21Catterick53rd2nd+1
2026-05-12Beverley56th5th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/1212/0515/0619/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1438% of fieldRange 7-14 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -4.2% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 14. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/12/202511th7/163%9%-0.54
15/04/20269th18/15%11%+0.06
01/05/20264th40/10%57%+0.57
12/05/20266th25/10%58%+0.58
21/05/20263rd4/179%71%-0.08
08/06/20262nd7/282%88%+0.06
15/06/20269th3/184%11%-0.73
03/07/20263rd4/179%0%-0.79
19/08/20267th20/10%25%+0.25