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10

Carmel Valley

3yo Filly · 9-6 · OR 61

Ayr · Ladbrokes 'Get Racing Bet Builder Winnings Boosts' Handicap · 7f 50y

#9

Rank

Odds

15/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Lightly-raced filly. All the better for the switch to front-running tactics when placing in back-to-back handicaps here in July. Rise in class possibly caught her out when eighth in 10-runner Musselburgh contest (7f) 24 days ago but this rates more suitable from career-low mark.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength48%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 5.9)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Curragh 04/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR - · 7f Sft 1284/10C8C8 @ Limerick 25/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR - · 7f50y Yie 129C8 @ Leopardstown 10/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR - · 7f Gd 12910/05C86 @ Ayr 19/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 63 · 1m Sft 134 · below its mark19/06/2026 · OR 63 par6 @ Ayr 06/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 62 · 1m Gd 132 · beat its mark06/07/2026 · OR 62 par6/076OR 624 @ Ayr 27/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 64 · 7f50y Goo 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/07/2026 · OR 64 par6 @ Ayr 10/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 63 · 7f50y Goo 134 · beat its mark10/08/2026 · OR 63 par10/086OR 634 @ Musselburgh 24/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 62 · 7f15y Gd 117 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark24/08/2026 · OR 62 par24/084OR 62projClass-projected finish: 5th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-24Musselburgh48th6th+2
2026-08-10Ayr67th7th0
2026-07-27Ayr43rd1st+2
2026-07-06Ayr62nd2nd0
2026-06-19Ayr67th7th0
2026-05-10Leopardstown?6th8th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/1019/0610/0824/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1469% of fieldRange 1-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength57%

Delivery trend -4.8% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 14. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/10/20257th33/10%50%+0.50
25/04/20267th28/10%50%+0.50
10/05/20266th17/255%38%-0.18
19/06/20267th17/255%25%-0.30
06/07/20262nd22/10%89%+0.89
27/07/20263rd12/137%50%+0.13
10/08/20267th4/179%45%-0.33
24/08/20268th28/10%22%+0.22