IvyArcIvyArc
9

Jkr Cobbler

7yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 59

Ayr · Ladbrokes 'Get Racing Bet Builder Winnings Boosts' Handicap · 7f 50y

#1

Rank

Odds

13/2

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

94%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Gained a fifth C&D success having fallen plenty in the weights in July. Ran respectably on the back of a 4 lb rise when fourth returned to this C&D later that month and he's one to consider having been freshened up ahead of this.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength42%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.2)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Newcastle 16/01/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 61 · 6f Std 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/01/2026 · OR 61 par16/015OR 616 @ Newcastle 24/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 59 · 7f14y Std 134 · beat its mark24/02/2026 · OR 59 par6 @ Newcastle 06/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 59 · 6f Std 135 · beat its mark06/03/2026 · OR 59 par6/036OR 596 @ Thirsk 10/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 57 · 7f Gd 132 · beat its mark10/04/2026 · OR 57 par5 @ Newcastle 19/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 56 · 7f14y Std 116 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/05/2026 · OR 56 par19/055OR 566 @ Carlisle 08/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 54 · 6f195y Sft 129 · beat its mark08/06/2026 · OR 54 par6 @ Carlisle 15/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 54 · 7f173y Goo 125 · beat its mark15/06/2026 · OR 54 par15/066OR 546 @ Ayr 05/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 54 · 7f50y Gd 137 · beat its mark05/07/2026 · OR 54 par6 @ Ayr 13/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 54 · 7f50y Goo 138 · beat its mark13/07/2026 · OR 54 par13/076OR 54projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-13Ayr64th4th0
2026-07-05Ayr61st1st0
2026-06-15Carlisle64th4th0
2026-06-08Carlisle63rd3rd0
2026-05-19Newcastle57th6th+1
2026-04-10Thirsk65th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/0110/0415/0613/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1492% of fieldRange 4-11 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength50%

Delivery trend -3.7% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 14. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/01/20265th18/15%50%+0.45
24/02/20264th10/382%67%-0.16
06/03/20264th11/271%57%-0.14
10/04/20265th11/142%69%+0.27
19/05/20267th14/126%33%+0.07
08/06/20263rd4/179%78%-0.01
15/06/20264th10/382%73%-0.10
05/07/20261st3/184%100%+0.16
13/07/20264th6/492%63%-0.30