14
Kelpie Grey
6yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 56
Ayr · Ladbrokes 'Get Racing Bet Builder Winnings Boosts' Handicap · 7f 50y
#3
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength59%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.7 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Hamilton | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Ayr | 6 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Ayr | 6 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Ayr | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Ayr | 4 | 13th | 11th | +2 |
| 2026-06-20 | Ayr | 4 | 6th | 4th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1454% of fieldRange 10-14 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength0%
Delivery trend -0.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/04/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 44% | -0.32 |
| 20/05/2026 | 5th | 11/8 | 93% | 50% | -0.43 |
| 04/06/2026 | 8th | 9/4 | 88% | 13% | -0.76 |
| 20/06/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 62% | +0.09 |
| 06/07/2026 | 13th | 14/1 | 26% | 25% | -0.01 |
| 27/07/2026 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 38% | -0.45 |
| 08/08/2026 | 8th | 10/3 | 82% | 42% | -0.41 |
| 10/08/2026 | 11th | 3/1 | 84% | 9% | -0.75 |
| 02/09/2026 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 33% | -0.25 |