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2

Ashnak

4yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 88

Ayr · Tennent's Lager Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 5f 26y

#1

Rank

Odds

15/2

Win Prob

71%

Place Prob

50%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Useful sort who gained his win in France on heavy. Made a solid start for current yard in the first half of 2026, posting a solid second over C&D in June and much better than distance beaten suggests when eighth at Haydock (1¾m, soft) 12 days ago, finding test too much. Better showing anticipated.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength53%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.3
Today: 3
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC1 @ Saint-Cloud 16/03/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR - · 1m2f96y Sft 128 · HIGHER CLASS16/03C1C5 @ Saint-Cloud 09/05/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR - · 1m2f96y GS 125C5 @ Lyon-Parilly 31/05/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR - · 1m3f204y Sft 12531/05C53 @ Doncaster 29/03/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 91 · 1m2f43y GS 132 · beat its mark29/03/2026 · OR 91 par2 @ Ripon 25/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 89 · 1m4f10y Goo 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/04/2026 · OR 89 par25/042OR 892 @ York 15/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 15 · OR 88 · 1m2f56y Gd 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/05/2026 · OR 88 par2 @ Ayr 20/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 88 · 1m5f26y Sft 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 88 par20/062OR 883 @ York 25/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 89 · 1m3f188y Goo 137 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 89 par2 @ Haydock 05/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 89 · 1m6f Sft 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 89 par5/092OR 89projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Haydock28th7th+1
2026-07-25York37th7th0
2026-06-20Ayr22nd1st+1
2026-05-15York24th3rd+1
2026-04-25Ripon23rd2nd+1
2026-03-29Doncaster38th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/0329/0320/065/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1190% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength71%

Delivery trend +2.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 11.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/03/20254th9/276%50%-0.26
09/05/20252nd10/1195%89%-0.06
31/05/20253rd6/492%60%-0.32
29/03/20268th16/116%36%+0.21
25/04/20263rd13/266%60%-0.06
15/05/20264th14/126%79%+0.52
20/06/20262nd16/116%91%+0.75
25/07/20267th9/276%33%-0.43
05/09/20268th9/153%22%-0.30